Leddy T | Comments | OnlyStonks

Leddy T - 2 years ago

I think it's possible we could see 385/390 on this run BUT if the Fed Pivot theory doesn't catch some validation from JPow or others, then it's going to go away as fast as it came, then we're just left with a technical bounce and a DXY that's going to moonshot.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Monday - How It Went - twitter.com/stonks_maverick/st...

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Friday recap - got that one wrong! twitter.com/stonks_maverick/st...

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Scenario 3 for Friday.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Thursday recap: twitter.com/stonks_maverick/st...

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Only thing I see messing up my exit tomorrow: BOE rate hike (DXY may pull back), dip buyers.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

How it went - twitter.com/stonks_maverick/st...

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

JPow in Friday is a non-event.

Good job looking beyond just the rate hike - the Fed Funds Rate projection is what matters since it's forward looking.

I think Scenario 1 is most likely. He can't stop or slow down. He was yelling at all of us from JHole.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Couldn't resist that end of day momentum, despite both our previews.

I'm seeing the bull case headed into FOMC, but not massive run like CPI - just cautious optimism. You said it right - the bears actually want that.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Monday results: twitter.com/stonks_maverick/st...

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Friday results: twitter.com/stonks_maverick/st...

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

🔥

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Recap: twitter.com/stonks_maverick/st...

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Awesome CPI preview. Hadn't seen anybody pull all that data together so nicely. Keep doing this for us clowns.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

I think the scenario could be one you didn't note: Under expectations on the jobs add but wages up.

I'm looking for full Scenario 1 though.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Tuesday recap: twitter.com/stonks_maverick/st...

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

"It looks like Friday is the day to play anything. So survival until then will be key for me this week. "

Mini version of last week.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

twitter.com/stonks_maverick/st...

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Friday recap: JPow let his inner hawk soar and scared the shit out of the market. I was setup perfectly with my options strangle, but tinkered with it about 20 min before the main event. That was very costly. I would have made ~5x what I did, had I done...nothing.

+$2637

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Paper hands...

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Well, we definitely agree on Monday's moves!

That's either really good - or really bad. 🤡

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Thursday recap: Neither scenario was in play. I exited my overnight puts for a tiny profit at the open. Then caught a ride on a call in the afternoon. 🥱

P&L: +$370

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Hot Girl Summer Rally is going to take a pause to pay its technical taxes, then better put on your bull suit.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

I love that you won't even consider calls right now. You big 🐻

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Wednesday recap: 🏆 "Scenario 2: We open under 427, puts to 424. I already have mine, so I’d sell - happily." I did just that.

P&L: +$5745 (almost cleaned up my mess from last few days)

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

The spark to downside could be at 2pm if Fed minutes show different stance than what Powell communicated at conference.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Friday recap: Scenario 2 was the only one in play. If I would have just done that, I would have been green for the day and upset I didn't make more. Instead, I just kept buying puts. Wrong day for that (so far). Gotta own it when you are dumb, so...

P&L: -$5,000 😔

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

🏆 ”Scenario 1: We open above 421, calls to 425 (max) if you’re feeling frisky.”

P&L: +$1000

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

🏆 " Scenario 1: If we gap to 415/416 on good CPI data (cool), give it a few minutes to dance at the open, then calls for a few points, max 420. Don’t try to flip over to puts - dangerous game"

+0

I made no trades today.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Good luck tomorrow. Looking for cool cool or hot hot. 💰

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Thank you for posting expected and last month - very helpful.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

🏆"Scenario 2: If we open below 413, puts to 410. Then stay out of the way - CPI optimism is lurking…"

P&L: +$520

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

🏆 "Scenario 1: If we gap to 416, taking puts down to 412/410."

Look at today's chart and behold! 😁

P&L: +$1,600

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

I like the few week outlook; but de-risking for major data releases. This should do well for you.

I'm going to continue to close out daily.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

I really like how your previews are taking shape/organized lately.

WMT theory - it's not a bad theory, really. I hadn't considered that. The timing is....spot on for you theory though (20 days early?) 🤔

I agree that it's a boxing match. My scenarios are very tight because of this. It'll get more volatile for the week after Tuesday AH. Watch that VIX....

Your note about 397 and puts is opposite of my 397 and calls. I think if we gap 397 you're going to get tech boys piling in for a strong close.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

July 25 Recap: Scenario 1 played out well, it just took all day in the Chop Box to get it done. "If we open below 395, puts to 393/390. Tough trade." I was out on the first dip to 394 and done for the day.

P&L: +$920

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

If we get HGSR starting this week, then we're months away from the wheels coming completely off this market and going back to pre-COVID levels on SPY.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

"If you are looking for a great week to take off to preserve your capital, this is the week. Don't get me wrong, I will be trading it everyday, but I am an addict. But, this is a great week to watch the market, not play the market."

Great advice.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

"If you are holding anything overnight after Monday, you are either guessing or have insider information. " 🤣

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

I still think we need a pullback before FOMC. If we consolidate in 390/400 ahead of FOMC, earnings next week don't move market too much, I think we'll go big to the upside. At least for a little while.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

July 21 recap: Scenario 1 was close, but not optimal. "If we open at/above 395, calls to 398/400 (max). Too risky beyond that." Dip after the open was a bit more than expected.

P&L: +$780

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

I think a big ass rally is coming at some point after FOMC. We need to pull back first...but then..it's on. Even though I'm a bear.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

I agree with you that both puts and calls are at a bad risk/reward right now.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

July 21 - Day Ahead - stonks.chat/group/7/posts/552

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Here I come...to save the preview! 🦸‍♂️

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

July 20 recap: Scenario 1 was the move. "If we at/below 395, calls to 398/400 (max). Then it’s time to find a puts entry."

P&L: +$860 (I didn't do my own scenario, otherwise would have been up 3x as much)

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

Even in the worst of times, when the mighty SPY wants to run, you can't stand in the way.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

I think all action on Tuesday will be done in futures/premarket, then stuck in the chop box pending any meteorites like AAPL again.

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

"AAPL just confirmed that the itch the market has been feeling was in fact a STD."

🤡 😂

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Leddy T - 2 years ago

"but that tricky VIX was also green. That scared me like when my wife looks through my internet history and I locked in the profit. "

Damn, I knew you were scared about the VIX, but didn't realize you were sweating.

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